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課程名稱 |
亞太與台灣安全專題
Seminar on Asia-pacific and Taiwan Security |
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開課學期 |
103-2 |
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授課對象 |
社會科學院 政治學研究所 |
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授課教師 |
陳世民 |
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課號 |
PS7028 |
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課程識別碼 |
322 M3940 |
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班次 |
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學分 |
2 |
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全/半年 |
半年 |
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必/選修 |
選修 |
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上課時間 |
星期一7,8(14:20~16:20) |
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上課地點 |
社科研602 |
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備註 |
國際關係。
總人數上限：10人
外系人數限制：5人 |
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Ceiba 課程網頁 |
http://ceiba.ntu.edu.tw/1032PS7028_ats |
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課程簡介影片 |
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核心能力關聯 |
核心能力與課程規劃關聯圖 |
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課程大綱
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為確保您我的權利,請尊重智慧財產權及不得非法影印
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課程概述 |
3/2: 課程説明丶亞太既定安全架構丶冷戰結束後亞太安全架構的衝擊與轉變
(1) 蘇聯角色的消逝代表何意義？
(2) 中共軍事現代化的影響（中俄軍事交流）
(3) 大規模武器的擴散與軍備競賽：
(a) 北韓核武與飛彈擴散
(b) 日本軍事角色的日益提昇：正常國家化
(c) 臺海軍力平衡的動搖
(d) 南海局勢
3/9: 亞太軍力平衡及軍備競賽
3/16: 美國與亞太丶台灣安全
3/23: 中國崛起與亞太安全
3/30: 北韓核武擴散危機與東北亞不擴散機制之運作與動搖
(1) 歷史經驗與現狀
(2) 各國的不擴散政策
(3) 北韓核武擴散危機與東北亞核武擴散骨牌效應的擔憂
4/13: 日本正常國家化之發展與亞太安全
4/20: 飛彈防禦與東亞安全: 飛彈防禦是否真能增進東北亞的安全與穩定?
(1) 飛彈防禦對東北亞各國既定軍事戰略的衝擊，會帶末何轉變？
(2) 飛彈防禦對東北亞各國安全關係的影響：美、日、中、韓、台之立場及其歧異
(3) 東北亞地區嚇阻與防禦的兩難
4/27: 美國「延伸嚇阻」安全承諾的可信度、飛彈防禦，及不擴散機制之間的關連：
-------未來將如何發展，及影響亞太戰略格局與兩岸安全關係？
5/4: 俄國角色與亞太安全
5/11: 南海爭議與東南亞安全
5/18: 亞太多邊主義安全架構(東南亞與東北亞)可能出現並成功運作嗎？
(1) 「區域性集體安全體系」與「信心建立措施」:可行之途徑嗎？---東協區域論壇、亞太安全合作理事會……等之運作， 是成功的嗎?
(2) 各國之看法，及其對臺海、朝鮮半島之適用問題
(3) 目前朝核問題之「六邊會談」架構的未來可能發展：
-----能形成未來之「東北亞多邊安全架構」嗎？臺灣會被邊緣化嗎？
5/25: 台海軍力平衡之改變與台灣安全
6/1: 臺灣的安全困境：臺灣該如何因應此快速變遷中的亞太安全局勢？
------核子與飛彈時代臺灣安全的兩難：防禦或嚇阻？
------防禦有用嗎？嚇阻有效嗎？美國可以依靠嗎？
------馬政府的「守勢防禦」有用嗎？
------弭兵論、反戰論、中立論與臺灣安全
6/8: 期末論文報告
6/15: 期末論文報告
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課程目標 |
現今不少全球矚目的國際焦點存在於亞太地區（朝鮮半島丶南海丶東海和臺海），加上亞太是我國所處的地區，此區域安全局勢在目前的快速演變，勢必對臺灣造成深遠影響，這亦因而成為現今國內、外國際關係學界備受關注的研究領域。本課程之目的即在培養國內亞太與臺灣安全議題的專才，一方面先使同學對亞太與臺灣安全議題有一完整的背景認識﹔另一方面藉由專題學術論文撰寫的訓練過程，使同學找出自己在此領域的興趣所在，並具有搜集資料及分析的獨立研究能力。 |
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課程要求 |
1. (20%)：閱讀教材、上課出席與參與討論
2. (20%)：學期論文口頭報告與評論
3. (60%)：學期論文 ：為確保論文的順利進行，學生須在第9週(4/15)前，繳交一份三百字(不含參考書目)報告大綱，說明研究計畫動機、目的、章節安排及問題意識、與資料來源(參考書目乃是重點)，並經老師同意。大綱將列入學期論文成績計算(佔10%)。寫作格式與要求重點，將於第一堂課說明。
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預期每週課後學習時數 |
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Office Hours |
每週三 13:00~15:00 |
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指定閱讀 |
3/9: 亞太軍力平衡及軍備競賽
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) : “Asia-Pacific,” Strategic Survey (London: The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), 2014)
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) : The Military Balance 2015 Chapter Six: “Asia” (London: The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), 2015)
3/16: 美國與亞太丶台灣安全
Center for Strategic and International Studies（CSIS），U.S. Force Posture Strategy in the Asia Pacific Region: An Independent Assessment，Washington, DC : CSIS , June 27, 2012. http://csis.org/files/publication/120814_FINAL_PACOM_optimized.pdf.
3/23: 中國崛起與亞太安全
Mingjiang Li and Kalyan M. Kemburi eds. , China's power and Asian security, Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2015. Jing-dong Yuan: “The Rise of China and the Emerging Order in Asia” , Richard A. Bitzinger : “China's Military Buildup : Regional Repercussions”
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2014 Annual Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Washington: November 20, 2014. Chapter 3: China and the World, Section 1: China and Asia’s Evolving Security Architecture.
3/30: 北韓核武擴散危機與東北亞不擴散機制之運作與動搖
(1) 歷史經驗與現狀
(2) 各國的不擴散政策
(3) 北韓核武擴散危機與東北亞核武擴散骨牌效應的擔憂
Chanlett-Avery, Emma., and Rinehart, Ian E., 2014. North Korea: U.S. Relations, Nuclear Diplomacy, and Internal Situation. United States Congressional Research Service, CRS order code: R41259.
Nikitin, Mary Beth, 2013. North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Technical Issues. United States Congressional Research Service, CRS order code: RL34256.
The National Institute for Defense Studies , East Asian Strategic Review 2014, Chapter 2： “The Korean Peninsula: The Start of North Korea's "New Strategic Line" and South Korea's "Trust Diplomacy",” Tokyo: The National Institute for Defense Studies, 2014.
4/13: 日本正常國家化之發展與亞太安全
The National Institute for Defense Studies , East Asian Strategic Review 2014,
Cha. 1: “Japan: New Development of National Security Policy,” Tokyo: The National Institute for Defense Studies, 2014.
4/20: 飛彈防禦與東亞安全: 飛彈防禦是否真能增進東北亞的安全與穩定?
(1) 飛彈防禦對東北亞各國既定軍事戰略的衝擊，會帶末何轉變？
(2) 飛彈防禦對東北亞各國安全關係的影響：美、日、中、韓、台之立場及其歧異
(3) 東北亞地區嚇阻與防禦的兩難
Ian E. Rinehart , Steven A. Hildreth , Susan V. Lawrence , Ballistic Missile Defense in the Asia-Pacific Region: Cooperation and Opposition, Congressional Research Service , R43116 , June 24, 2013.
4/27: 美國「延伸嚇阻」安全承諾的可信度、飛彈防禦，及不擴散機制之間的關連：
-------未來將如何發展，及影響亞太戰略格局與兩岸安全關係？
Andrew O'Neil, Asia, the US and extended nuclear deterrence : atomic umbrellas in the twenty-first century, London ; New York : Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, 2013. Cha. 3: “Asia's security, power transitions, and nuclear weapons”
Brad Roberts, Extended Deterrence and Strategic Stability in Northeast Asia, NIDS Visiting Scholar Paper Series, No.1, 9th August 2013.
Bush, Richard C., 2011.“The U.S. Policy of Extended Deterrence in East Asia: History, Current Views, and Implications.” Foreign Policy at Brookings. .
5/4: 俄國角色與亞太安全
Tsuneo Akaha and Anna Vassilieva eds. , Russia and East Asia : informal and gradual integration New York, NY : Routledge, 2014. Cha. 1: Tsuneo Akaha and Anna Vassilieva : ”Russia's new global vision and security policy in East Asia,” cha. 2: Vitaly Kozyrev ”Russia's security policy towards East Asia. ”
5/11: 南海爭議與東南亞安全
The National Institute for Defense Studies , East Asian Strategic Review 2014, Chapter 4: “Southeast Asia: South China Sea Grows More Complicated,” Tokyo: The National Institute for Defense Studies, 2014.
David Martin Jones, M.L.R. Smith, Nicholas Khoo, Asian security and the rise of China: international relations in an age of volatility , Cheltenham ; Northampton, Mass. : Edward Elgar, 2013. Cha: 5 “Producing security: state power, democracy and Southeast Asian regionalism,”
5/18: 亞太多邊主義安全架構(東南亞與東北亞)可能出現並成功運作嗎？
(1) 「區域性集體安全體系」與「信心建立措施」:可行之途徑嗎？---東協區域論壇、亞太安全合作理事會……等之運作， 是成功的嗎?
(2) 各國之看法，及其對臺海、朝鮮半島之適用問題
(3) 目前朝核問題之「六邊會談」架構的未來可能發展：
-----能形成未來之「東北亞多邊安全架構」嗎？臺灣會被邊緣化嗎？
Mark Beeson, Institutions of the Asia-Pacific : ASEAN, APEC, and beyond，London ; New York : Routledge, 2009. Cha: 4 “The ASEAN regional forum and security dynamics in the Asia-Pacific”
Mark Beeson and Richard Stubbs eds. Routledge handbook of Asian regionalism, London ; Abingdon : Routledge, 2012. Cha. 27: “ASEAN Regional Foram: Challengers and prospects”
Ellen L. Frost & David C. Kang, “Security in Northeast Asia: Time for New Architecture?” in Vinod K. Aggarwal, Min Gyo Koo, Seungjoo Lee and Chung-in Moon, Northeast Asia---Ripe for Integration? Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 213-244.
5/25: 台海軍力平衡之改變與台灣安全
Department of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2014, Annual Report to Congress (Arlington, VA: Office of the Secretary of Defense, 5 June 2014). Section: Taiwan.
David A. Shlapak, David T. Orletsky, Toy I. Reid, Murray Scot Tanner, Barry Wilson , A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute, RAND, 2009.
6/1: 臺灣的安全困境：臺灣該如何因應此快速變遷中的亞太安全局勢？
------核子與飛彈時代臺灣安全的兩難：防禦或嚇阻？
------防禦有用嗎？嚇阻有效嗎？美國可以依靠嗎？
------馬政府的「守勢防禦」有用嗎？
------弭兵論、反戰論、中立論與臺灣安全
Jim Thomas , John Stillion, Iskander Rehman , HARD ROC 2.0: Taiwan and Deterrence Through Protraction, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2014
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2014 Annual Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Washington: November 20, 2014. Chapter 3: China and the World, Section 3: Taiwan.
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參考書目 |
東北亞既定安全架構：結盟與權力平衡的雙邊主義架構，
冷戰結束後東北亞安全架構的衝擊與轉變
(1) 蘇聯角色的消逝代表何意義？：已成美日中三角架構？或仍是四角架構？
(2) 中共軍事現代化的影響（中俄軍事交流）
(3) 大規模武器的擴散與軍備競賽：
(a) 北韓核武與飛彈擴散
(b) 日本軍事角色的日益提昇：正常國家化
(c) 臺海軍力平衡的動搖：臺灣如何發展「有效嚇阻」力量？
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) : “Asia-Pacific,” Strategic Survey (London: The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), 2012) pp. 329-394及各年份(可用學校網域上網下載)( http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/04597230.2012.717425).
Romberg, Alan D. , Future East Asian Security Architecture: Implications for the PLA, Washington, DC: The Henry L. Stimson Center, July 12, 2007 http://www.stimson.org/eastasia/pdf/SecurityArchitecture.pdf
Byung-Kook Kim, Anthony Jones eds. Power and security in Northeast Asia : shifting strategies (Boulder, Colo. : Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2007)
Hwang, Jihwan , “Rethinking the East Asian balance of power : historical antagonism, internal balancing and the Korean-Japanese security relationship”, World Affairs (Washington), 2003,Fall, vol.166:n°2, pp.95-108.
Stephen Haggard, “ The Balance of Power, Globalization , and Democracy: International Relations Theories in Northeast Asia ”, Journal of East Asian Studies, No. 4, 2004, pp. 1-38.
Ross, Robert S. , “Bipolarity and Balancing in East Asia”, in T.V. Paul, James J. Wirtz, and Michel Fortmann eds. , Balance of power : theory and practice in the 21st century, Stanford, California : Stanford University Press, 2004. pp. 267-304.
Hemmer, Christopher, and Peter J. Katzenstein. "Why is There No NATO in Asia? Collective Identity, Regionalism, and the Origins of Multilateralism." International Organization 56, no. 3 (Summer 2002): 575-607.
Ross, Robert S. : “The Geography of the Peace: East Asia in the Twenty-first Century” International Security V.23 N.4 Spring 1999 pp.81-118
Buzan, Barry. “Security architecture in Asia : the interplay of regional and global levels”, Pacific Review, 2003, vol.16:n°2, pp.143-162.
Lim, Robyn, The geopolitics of East Asia : the search for equilibrium, London ; New York : RoutledgeCurzon, 2003
東北亞各國之東北亞政策與互動關係（尤其是安全關係）
(美中、美日、美俄、美臺、美國與兩韓關係，中日、中俄、兩岸、中共與兩韓關係，日俄、日本與兩韓關係，俄國與兩韓關係)，(各主要三角關係：美中俄、美中日、美日俄、美中臺）美國的東亞政策、美國的兩岸政策、中共的對臺政策、臺灣的大陸政策…等等
Romberg, Alan D. , U.S. Strategic Interests in Northeast Asia: 2009 and Beyond, Washington, DC: The Henry L. Stimson Center. July 12, 2007, http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/USInterests2009.pdf
Christensen, Thomas J. , “Fostering Stability or Creating a Monster? The Rise of China and U.S. Policy toward East Asia”, International Security Summer 2006, Vol. 31, No. 1: 81-126.
Comparative Connections: A Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations, Pacific Forum CSIS, Honolulu, Hawaii 2000-now, “Regional Overview” http://csis.org/program/comparative-connections
Takashi Inoguchi, G. John Ikenberry, and Yoichiro Sato eds. , The U.S.-Japan security alliance: regional multilateralism (New York : Palgrave Macmillan, 2011)
Jung-Ho Bae and Abraham Denmark eds., The U.S.-ROK alliance in the 21st century (Sŏul : Korea Insitute for National Unification, 2009)
Sutter, Robert G., The United States and East Asia : dynamics and implications. Lanham, Md : Rowman & Littlefield, 2003.
Michael Mastanduno, “Incomplete Hegemony: The United States and Security Order in Asia,” in Muthiah Alagappa, ed., Asian Security Order: Instrumental and Normative Features (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2003), pp.141-170.
Department of Defense (U.S.A.). The United States Security Strategy For The East Asia-Pacific Region 1998, . http://www.shaps.hawaii.edu/security/easr98.html
Sutter, Robert: “China and Japan: Trouble Ahead?” The Washington Quarterly V.25 N.4 autumn, 2002 pp.37-49.
Twomey Christopher P. : The Dangers of Overreaching: International Relations Theory, the US-Japan Alliance, and China, Washington: The Henry L. Stimson Center 2002
Ivanov, Vladimir I. and Karla S. Smith, Japan and Russia in Northeast Asia : partners in the 21st century, London : Praeger, 1999
Osius, Ted , The US-Japan security alliance : why it matters and how to strengthen it , Westport, Conn. : Praeger, 2002
Carpenter, William M. : “The Taiwan Strait Triangle” Comparative Strategy V.19 N.4 Oct/Dec, 2000 pp.329-340.
Christensen, Thomas J. : “China, the U.S.-Japan Alliance, and the Security Dilemma in East Asia” International Security V.23 N.4 Spring 1999 pp.49-80
Dreyer, June Teufel: “U.S.-China Security Relations: Past, Present, and Future” Issues and Studies V.36 N.4 July/Aug, 2000 pp.33-65.
Drifte, Reinhard: “US Impact on Japanese-Chinese Security Relations” Security Dialogue V.31 N.4 Dec, 2000 pp.449-462.
Wishnick, Elizabeth: “Russia and China: Brothers Again?” Asian Survey , V.41 N.5 Sept/Oct, 2001 pp.797-821.
Cossa, Ralph A. ed., US-Korea-Japan relations : building toward a `virtual alliance`, Washington, D.C. : The CSIS Press, 1999.
Cossa, Ralph A., “US-ROK-DPRK relations : dealing with uncertainty,” Journal of East Asian Affairs, (2001,Spring/Summer)vol.15:n°1, p.1-14.
Eberstadt, Nicholas, “American security relations with Northeast Asia after 9-11 : the doughnut and the hole” . In : Korea & World Affairs,: (2002,Fall)vol.26:n°3, p.335-356.
Hunter, Robert E., “After 9/11 : US policy in Northeast Asia,” In : Asia-Pacific Review (Tokyo), (2003-05)vol.10:n°1, p.1-20.
Kim, Samuel S. ed., The international relations of northeast Asia, Lanham, Md. : Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2003.
Ward, A., “China and America: Trouble Ahead?”, Survival, Volume 45, Number 3 (September 01, 2003), pp. 35-56.
William T. Tow著，國防部史政編譯局譯印（2003），《亞太戰略關係：尋求整合安全》，台北：國防部史政編譯局。
卜睿哲(Richard C. Bush)著 ; 林添貴譯，《一山二虎 : 中日關係的現狀與亞太局勢的未來》，臺北 : 遠流, 2012。
卜睿哲(Richard C. Bush), 歐漢龍(Michael E. O'Hanlon)著 ; 林宗憲譯，《不一樣的戰爭 : 台灣的選擇.中國的焦慮.美國的挑戰》，臺北 : 博雅書屋, 2010。
卜睿哲(Richard C. Bush)著 ; 林添貴譯，《台灣的未來 》，臺北 : 遠流, 2010。
David M. Lampton（2003），《同床異夢—處理1989到2000年之中美外交》，香港：中文大學出版社。
Gerald L. Curtis編，國防部史政編譯局譯（2000），《美日關係的新觀點》，台北：國防部史政編譯局。
James Przystup（2001），「中共、日本與美國」，出自：國防部史政編譯局譯，《美日聯盟》，台北：國防部史政編譯局。
Nishihara Masashi編，國防部史政編譯局譯（2000），《美日聯盟的新挑戰》，台北：國防部史政編譯局。
Richard J. Ellings & Aaron Friedberg著，國防部史政編譯局譯（2001），《2001-02戰略亞洲：權力與目的》，台北：國防部史政編譯局。
東北亞軍力平衡之現狀及其演變：各國之軍力現狀及比較（尤其是在朝鮮半島與臺灣海峽）; 東北亞既定安全架構的主要穩定因素：美國「延伸嚇阻」(核保護傘)的可信度問題
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) : The Military Balance Chapter Six: “Asia” (London: The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), 2012) pp. 205-302及各年份 (可用學校網域上網下載)( http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/04597222.2012.663215).
U.S. Department of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2012, cha. 2 “Force Modernization Goals and Trends “, pp. 5-10. (http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/2012_CMPR_Final.pdf)
韓國《國防白皮書》Defense White Paper “Security Situation in Northeast Asia” http://www.mnd.go.kr/mndEng/DefensePolicy/Whitepaper/index.jsp
各國國防白皮書
Ashley J. Tellis, “Military modernization in Asia” in Ashley J. Tellis & Michael Wills eds. , Military modernization in an era of uncertainty , Seattle : National Bureau of Asian Research, c2005, pp. 3-40.
Harold Brown, Joseph W. Prueher and Adam Segal, Chinese Military Power, (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2003)
Park, Kyung Ae , “North Korea`s defensive power and US-North Korea relations”, Pacific Affairs (2000/2001,Winter) vol.73:n°4, p.535-553.
Hickey, Dennis Van Vranken, The armies of East Asia : China, Taiwan, Japan, and the Koreas, Boulder, Colo. : L. Rienner, 2001
Huxley, Tim and Susan Willett, Arming East Asia, London : International Institute for Strategic Studies ; Oxford : Oxford University Press, 1999 Adelphi papers ; 329
Natalie Crawford、Chun-in Moon（2003），《韓國的兵力結構與空中武力角色》，台北：國防部史政編譯局。
日本防衛廳防衛研究所，歷年《東亞戰略概觀》。
各國之東亞軍事戰略：轉變過程與現狀，美、日、南北韓
Michael O'Hanlon, “U.S. military modernization : implications for U.S. policy in Asia” in Ashley J. Tellis & Michael Wills eds. , Military modernization in an era of uncertainty , Seattle : National Bureau of Asian Research, c2005, pp. 41-66.
Christopher W. Hughes, “Japanese military modernization : in search of a "normal" security role,” in Ashley J. Tellis & Michael Wills eds. , Military modernization in an era of uncertainty , Seattle : National Bureau of Asian Research, c2005, pp. 105-136.
Jonathan D. Pollack, “The strategic futures and military capabilities of the two Koreas,” in Ashley J. Tellis & Michael Wills eds. , Military modernization in an era of uncertainty , Seattle : National Bureau of Asian Research, c2005, pp. 137-174.
日、南韓國防白皮書軍事戰略及安全政策部份 (自行上網閱讀)
McDevitt, Michael, The 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review and National Security Strategy: Is There An American Strategic Vision for East Asia?, Issues and Insights, Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 2007. http://www.comw.org/cmp/fulltext/0701mcdevitt.pdf
The Council on Security and Defense Capabilities, Japan’s Visions for Future Security and Defense Capabilities Report of the Council on Security and Defense Capabilities Report, Tokyo: October 2004 Part: 1 pp. 1-13
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/japan/2004/041000-csdc-report.pdf
Eldridge, Robert : US Security Strategy and US-Japan-China Relations: Stabilizer and Engager Washington: The Henry L. Stimson Center 2002. http://www.stimson.org/japan/pdf/Eldridge-e.pdf
Murata, Koji : Japan’s Security Policy and US-Japan-China Relations Washington: The Henry L. Stimson Center 2002
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各國之東亞軍事戰略及安全政策：轉變過程與現狀：中共、俄
David Shambaugh, “China's military modernization : making steady and surprising progress” in Ashley J. Tellis & Michael Wills eds. , Military modernization in an era of uncertainty , Seattle : National Bureau of Asian Research, c2005, pp. 137-174.
Stephen J. Blank, “Potemkin's treadmill : Russian military modernization” in Ashley J. Tellis & Michael Wills eds. , Military modernization in an era of uncertainty , Seattle : National Bureau of Asian Research, c2005, pp. 175-207.
U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report on the Military Power of PRC, 2000-2012, cha. “China’s Military Strategy and Doctrine”
中華人民共和國國務院新聞辦公室,《1998-2010年中國的國防》·北京
National Institute for Defense Studies, ed. , “Russia-A More Assertive Foreign Policy”in East Asian Strategic Review 2007, Chapter 6 pp. 161-196 http://www.nids.go.jp/english/dissemination/east-asian/e2007.html
Medeiros, Evan S. , “Evolving Nuclear Doctrine” in Bolt, Paul J. & Albert S. Willner, China's nuclear future, Boulder, Colo. : Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2006. pp. 39-78.
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John J. Tkacik, Jr., “China’s Quest for a Superpower Military”, Backgrounder, N. 2036, Washington, DC: The Heritage Foundation (May 17, 2007). www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub709.pdf.
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東北亞不擴散機制之運作與動搖
(1) 歷史經驗與現狀
(2) 各國的不擴散政策
(3) 北韓核武擴散危機與東北亞核武擴散骨牌效應的擔憂
Mitchell B. Reiss, “Prospects for nuclear proliferation in Asia” in Ashley J. Tellis & Michael Wills eds. , Military modernization in an era of uncertainty , Seattle : National Bureau of Asian Research, 2005, pp. 333-362.
Cimbala, Stephen J.. “Nuclear arms in Asia : theory and policy issues”, Comparative Strategy, (2007-03/04) vol.26:n°2, p.127-140
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Rozman, Gilbert , Strategic thinking about the Korean nuclear crisis : four parties caught between North Korea and the United States, New York : Palgrave Macmillan, 2007. Funabashi, Yōichi, The peninsula question : a chronicle of the second Korean nuclear crisis, Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, 2007.
Mack, Andrew ed. Nuclear Policies in Northeast Asia, Geneva & New York: UNIDIR 1995.
Morton I. Abramowitz and James T. Laney, Meeting the North Korea nuclear change : report of an independent task force, New York : Council on Foreign Relations, 2003
東北亞不擴散機制之運作與動搖 ：日本核武問題
Llewelyn Hughes, “Why Japan Will Not Go Nuclear (Yet): International and Domestic Constraints on the Nuclearization of Japan” International Security Spring 2007, Vol. 31, No. 4: 67-96
Emma Chanlett-Avery & Mary Beth Nikitin, Japan's Nuclear Future: Policy Debate, Prospects, and U.S. Interests, United States Congressional Research Service, CRS report number: RL34487 , February 2, 2009, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL34487.pdf.
Andrew Sherrill, Clifton W. (2001). "The Need for a Japanese Nuclear Deterrent". Comparative Strategy 20 3: 259–270. http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content=a713839448~db=all~order=page
L. Oros (2003). "Godzilla's Return: The New Nuclear Politics in an Insecure Japan". In Japan's Nuclear Option: Security, Politics, and Policy in the 21st Century, Benjamin Self and Jeffrey Thompson (eds), Washington, DC: The Henry L. Stimson Center. http://www.stimson.org/pub.cfm?ID=91
Yuri Kase, “Japan’s Nonnuclear Weapons Policy in the Changing Security Environment: Issues, Challenges, and Strategies,” World Affairs 165:3 (Winter 2003), pp.123-131.
Kamiya, Matake (2002). "Nuclear Japan: Oxymoron or Coming Soon?". The Washington Quarterly 26 1: pp. 63–75.
DiFilippo, Anthony , Japan's nuclear disarmament policy and the U.S. security umbrella, New York : Palgrave Macmillian, 2006
4飛彈防禦與東亞安全: 飛彈防禦是否真能增進東北亞的安全與穩定? ---美、日、南韓
Cimbala, Stephen J.. “Nuclear proliferation in Asia and missile defense”, Comparative Strategy, (2005-10/11) vol.24:n°4, p.313-326
Freedman, Amy L., “The implications of missile defense for Northeast Asia” Orbis, (2004,Spring) vol.48:n°2, p.335-
Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies : Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) in Northeast Asia: An Annotated Chronology, 1990-2003 California: Monterey Institute of International Studies, East Asia Nonproliferation Program, http://cns.miis.edu/research/neasia/bmdchron.pdf , (中文版1990-2000) http://cns.miis.edu/research/neasia/bmdchi.pdf (自行上網參考)
Victor D. Cha, “Nuclear Weapons, Missile Defense, and Stability: A Case for ‘Sober Optimism’,” in Muthiah Alagappa, ed., Asian Security Order: Instrumental and Normative Features (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2003), pp.458-496
Department of Defense (U.S.A.), Theater Missile Defense Architecture Options for the Asia-Pacific Region, Report to Congress, May 4, 1999. http://www.shaps.hawaii.edu/security/tmd050499.html
Swaine, Michael D. and Loren H. Runyon, (2002), Ballistic Missiles and Missile Defense in Asia NBR Analysis vol. 13, no. 3.
Medeiros, Evan S. : Ballistic Missile Defense and Northeast Asian Security: Views from Washington, Beijing, and Tokyo California: Monterey Institute of International Studies & Iowa: The Stanley Foundation, April 2001
Mitchell, Gordon R., “Japan-US missile defense collaboration : rhetorically delicious, deceptively dangerous”, Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, (2001,Winter), vol.25:n°1, pp.85-108
Michael D. Swaine等著，國防部史政編譯局譯（2001），《日本與彈道飛彈防禦》，台北：國防部史政編譯局。
4飛彈防禦與東亞安全: 中、俄、北韓之反應
Tompkins, Joanne , “How U.S. Strategic Policy Is Changing China's Nuclear Plans” Arms Control Today, January/February 2003. http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_01-02/tompkins_janfeb03.asp?print
Kim, Taeho, “East Asian Reactions to U.S. Missile Defense: Torn between Tacit Support and Overt Oppossition”, in Scobell, Andrew & Wortzel, Larry M. ed.: China’s Growing Military Power: Perspectives on Security, Ballistic Missiles, and conventional capabilities Sept. 2002 http://carlis/e-www.army.mil/usassi/ ssipubs/pubs2002/chingrow/chingrow.pdf
Alan D. Romberg and Michael McDevitt, eds., China and Missile Defense: Managing-U.S. PRC Strategic Relations, (Washington, D.C.: The Henry L. Stimson Center, 2003) pp. 1-37 (有中文版, 國防部史政編譯局譯) http://www.stimson.org/pub.cfm?id=73
CNS Programs: EANP Factsheets , China's Opposition to US Missile Defense Programs http://cns.miis.edu/research/china/chinamd.htm
Tow, William T. & Choong, William: “Asian Perceptions of BMD: Defence or Disequilibrium?” Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs V.23 N.3 Dec, 2001 pp.379-400.
Urayama, Kori J. : “Chinese Perspectives on Theater Missile Defense: Policy Implications for Japan” Asian Survey V.40 N.4 July/Aug,2001 pp.599-621.
Roberts, Brad , China and Ballistic Missile Defense: 1955 to 2002 and Beyond , Washington, D.C.: Institute for Defence Analysis, September 2003 http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A418710&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf
美國「延伸嚇阻」安全承諾的可信度、飛彈防禦，及不擴散機制之間的關連：---未來將如何發展，及影響東北亞戰略格局與兩岸安全關係？
Roberts, Brad (2001), China-U.S. Nuclear Relations: What Relationship Best Serves U.S. Interests? Institute for Defense Analysis. http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/dtra/china_us_nuc.pdf
Lewis, Jeffrey G , “U.S. Nuclear Posture and the logic of Restraint”, in Lewis, Jeffrey G , The minimum means of reprisal : China's search for security in the nuclear age , Cambridge, Mass. : The MIT Press, 2007, pp. 141-170.
Katsuhisa Furukawa, “Making Sense of Japan’s Nuclear Policy: Arms Control, Extended Deterrence, and the Nuclear Option,” in Benjamin L. Self and Jeffrey W. Thompson, eds., Japan’s Nuclear Options: Security, Politics, and Policy in the 21st Century , (Washington, DC: The Stimson Center, 2003), pp.95-147. http://www.stimson.org/pub.cfm?ID=91
Christopher P. Twomey ed. Perspectives on Sino-American strategic nuclear issues (New York : Palgrave Macmillan, 2008)
Bolkcom, Christopher, Shirley A. Kan, and Amy F. Woolf, U.S. Conventional Forces and Nuclear Deterrence: A China Case Study, CRS Report for Congress, August 11, 2006.
Chan, Steve, “Extended deterrence in the Taiwan Strait : learning from rationalist explanations in international relations” World Affairs (Washington) , (2003,Fall), vol.166:n°2, pp.109-125
Ross, Robert S. , “Navigating the Taiwan strait: deterrence escalation dominance, and U.S-China relations”, International Security, (2002,Fall), vol.27:n°2, pp.48-85
Payne, Keith B.: “Proliferation, Deterrence, stability and Missile Defense” Comparative Strategy V.13 N.1, jan.-mar. 1994, pp. 117-129.
多邊主義安全架構可能出現並成功運作嗎？---東北亞多邊主義安全架構可能出現嗎?
(1) 「區域性集體安全體系」與「信心建立措施」:可行之途徑嗎？
(2) 對臺海、朝鮮半島之適用問題
(3) 目前朝核問題之「六邊會談」架構的未來可能發展：
-----能形成未來之「東北亞多邊安全架構」嗎？臺灣會被邊緣化嗎？
Ellen L. Frost & David C. Kang, “Security in Northeast Asia: Time for New Architecture?” in Vinod K. Aggarwal, Min Gyo Koo, Seungjoo Lee and Chung-in Moon, Northeast Asia---Ripe for Integration? Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 213-244.
James E. Goodby, “The Emerging Architecture for Security and Cooperation in Northeast Asia” Issues and Insights , Vol. 8-No. 3, March 2008.
Paul Evans, “Constructing multilateralism in an anti-region : from Six Party Talks to a regional security framework in Northeast Asia?” in Gi-Wook Shin and Daniel C. Sneider eds. , Cross currents : regionalism and nationalism in Northeast Asia , Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, 2007, pp. 99-116.
Gi-Wook Shin, “regionalism and nationalism in Northeast Asia,” in Gi-Wook Shin and Daniel C. Sneider eds. , Cross currents : regionalism and nationalism in Northeast Asia , Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, 2007, pp. 11-42.
Wuchte, Thomas A. , “A Modest Proposal: Forming a Regularized Security Structure for Northeast Asia - Drawing on the OSCE Experience”, in Terence Roehrig , Jungmin and Seo Uk Heo, eds. , Korean security in a changing east Asia, Westport, Conn. : Praeger Security International, 2007.
Makio Miyagawa, “Regionism: The View from Northeast Asia,”in Gi-Wook Shin and Daniel C. Sneider eds. , Cross currents : regionalism and nationalism in Northeast Asia , Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, 2007, pp. 141-152.
Noerper, Stephen , “Multilateralism and Korean Security in Transition”, in Kyung-Ae Park and Dalchoong Kim eds. Korean security dynamics in transition, New York : Palgrave, 2001.
Kim, Sung-Han, “Exploring confidence-building measures in Northeast Asia: a Korean perspective,” Korea & World Affairs, Vol.21; No.3, Fall, 1997, pp.424-441
Gill, Bates, “North-East Asia and multilateral security institutions” SIPRI Yearbook : 1994 , p. 149-168
Center for Strategic and International Studies ed., Asia Pacific confidence and security building measures, Washington, D.C. : Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1995.
多邊主義安全架構可能出現並成功運作嗎？------大國的態度(美國的態度, 中國的新安全觀)
Martina Timmermann and Jitsuo Tsuchiyamaeds. Institutionalizing northeast Asia [electronic resource] : regional steps towards global governance (Tokyo ; New York : United Nations University Press, 2008) Cha. 9 “The Chinese approach to regional security institutionalism”
Bates Gill, “China’s New Security Multilateralism and Its Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region,” in SIPRI Yearbook 2004: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security (Oxford: Oxford University Press for SIPRI, 2004), pp. 207-231.
Michael H. Armacost, “The U.S. response to Asian Regionalism,” in Gi-Wook Shin and Daniel C. Sneider eds. , Cross currents : regionalism and nationalism in Northeast Asia , Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, 2007, pp. 287-293.
Takeshi Yuzawa, “Japan’s changing conception of the ARF: From an optimistic liberal to a pessistic realist perspective on security miltilateralism,” Japan's security policy and the ASEAN Regional Forum : the search for multilateral security in the Asia-Pacific, London ; New York : Routledge, 2007, pp. 150-166.
Jannuzi, Frank, "US Perspectives on East Asia Community Building," in Jusuf Wanandi and Tadashi Yamamoto eds. East Asia at a Crossroads , Tokyo: Japan Center for International Exchange, 2008, pp. 121-136.
Taizo Watanabe, William T. Tow , “Trilateralism, Southeast Asia and multilateralism” in William T. Tow et al. , Asia-Pacific security : US, Australia and Japan and the new security triangle, London ; New York : Routledge, 2007, pp. 125-138.
Tow, William T. “Convergent Security Revisited: Reconciling Bilateral and Multilateral Security Approaches” in Seng Tan and Amitav Acharya eds., Asia-Pacific security cooperation : national interests and regional order , N.Y. ; London : M.E. Sharpe, 2004, pp. 19-32.
Cossa, Ralph A., “Bilateralism versus multilateralism : an American perspective,” In : Korean Journal of Defense Analysis.: (1996,Winter)vol.8:n°2, p.7-27.
Fukushima, Akiko : Multilateralism and Security Cooperation with China, Washington: The Henry L. Stimson Center 2002
臺灣與東北亞安全：臺灣該如何因應此快速變遷中的東北亞安全局勢？
------核子與飛彈時代臺灣安全的兩難：防禦或嚇阻？
------防禦有用嗎？嚇阻有效嗎？美國可以依靠嗎？
Michael D. Swaine and Roy D. Kamphausen, “Military modernization in Taiwan” in Ashley J. Tellis & Michael Wills eds. , Military modernization in an era of uncertainty , Seattle : National Bureau of Asian Research, c2005, pp. 387-423.
U.S. Department of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2012, cha. “ Force Modernization and Security in the Taiwan Strait.” (http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/2012_CMPR_Final.pdf)
Annual Report on the Military Power of PRC, 2012,
中華民國國防報告書「國防政策」 ch. 6「軍事戰略」. , ch. 3 「中共軍力」 http://report.mnd.gov.tw/ (自行上網閱讀).
Murray, William, “Revisiting Taiwan's Defense Strategy”, Naval War College Review 2008, Summer <台灣防衛戰略的再檢討> 鄭大誠譯
馬英九、蕭萬長國防政策, http://www.ma19.net/
Michael D. Swaine, Andrew N.D. Yang, and Evan S. Medeiros eds., Assessing the threat : the Chinese military and Taiwan's security (Washington, DC : Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2007)
Ting, Wei , “The Potential Flashpoint: Taiwan” in Bolt, Paul J. & Albert S. Willner, China's nuclear future, Boulder, Colo. : Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2006. pp. 143-166.
Cole, Bernard D. , Taiwan’s Security: History and prospects, N. Y. : Routledge, 2006.
Edmonds, Martin and Michael Tsai eds. , Defending Taiwan : the future vision of Taiwan's defence policy and military strategy, New York, NY : RoutledgeCurzon, 2003
Swaine, Michael & James Mulvenon: Taiwan’s Foreign and Defense Policies: Features and Determinants Rand, 2001 http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1383 。
Christensen, Thomas J., “The contemporary security dilemma : deterring a Taiwan conflict”, Washington Quarterly, (2002,Autumn), vol.25 :n°4, p.7-21
Hickey, Dennis Van Vranken: Taiwan’s Security in the Changing International System Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1997
Kearsley, Harold J. : “An Analysis of the Military Threats Across the Taiwan Strait: Fact or Fiction” Comparative Strategy V.19 Issue 2 Apr.-Jun 2000 pp.103-116
Lee,Wei-chin: “Thunder in the Air: Taiwan and Theater Missile Defense” Nonproliferation Review V.8 N.3 fall/winter 2001, pp.107-122.
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Wang, T. Y. : “Taiwan and Theater Missile Defense” Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies V.25 N.3 fall, 2000 pp.259-283.
Bi, Jianxiang , “Uncertain courses: theater missile defense and cross-strait competition” Journal of Strategic Studies, (2002-09), vol.25:n°3, pp.109-160
Mulvenon, James , “Missile Defenses and the Taiwan Scenario” in Alan D. Romberg and Michael McDevitt, eds., China and Missile Defense: Managing-U.S. PRC Strategic Relations, (Washington, D.C.: The Henry L. Stimson Center, 2003) pp. 52-60. http://www.stimson.org/pub.cfm?id=73
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評量方式
(僅供參考) |
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週次 |
日期 |
單元主題 |
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第3週 |
3/09 |
亞太軍力平衡及軍備競賽 |
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第4週 |
3/16 |
美國與亞太丶台灣安全 |
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第5週 |
3/23 |
中國崛起與亞太安全 |
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第6週 |
3/30 |
北韓核武擴散危機與東北亞不擴散機制之運作與動搖
(1) 歷史經驗與現狀
(2) 各國的不擴散政策
(3) 北韓核武擴散危機與東北亞核武擴散骨牌效應的擔憂 |
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第8週 |
4/13 |
日本正常國家化之發展與亞太安全 |
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第9週 |
4/20 |
飛彈防禦與東亞安全: 飛彈防禦是否真能增進東北亞的安全與穩定?
(1) 飛彈防禦對東北亞各國既定軍事戰略的衝擊，會帶末何轉變？
(2) 飛彈防禦對東北亞各國安全關係的影響：美、日、中、韓、台之立場及其歧異
(3) 東北亞地區嚇阻與防禦的兩難
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第10週 |
4/27 |
美國「延伸嚇阻」安全承諾的可信度、飛彈防禦，及不擴散機制之間的關連：
-------未來將如何發展，及影響亞太戰略格局與兩岸安全關係？ |
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第11週 |
5/04 |
俄國角色與亞太安全，請上下列網站閲讀（http://tulips.ntu.edu.tw/search~S5*cht/?searchtype=X&searcharg=Russia+and+East+Asia+%3A+informal+and+gradual+integration+&searchscope=5&SUBMIT=查詢&SORT=DZ&sortdropdown=-&searchlimits=&searchorigarg=X%7Bu54C8%7D%7Bu5229%7D） |
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第12週 |
5/11 |
南海爭議與東南亞安全 |
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第13週 |
5/18 |
亞太多邊主義安全架構(東南亞與東北亞)可能出現並成功運作嗎？（印講義）
(1) 「區域性集體安全體系」與「信心建立措施」:可行之途徑嗎？---東協區域論壇、亞太安全合作理事會……等之運作， 是成功的嗎?
(2) 各國之看法，及其對臺海、朝鮮半島之適用問題
(3) 目前朝核問題之「六邊會談」架構的未來可能發展：
-----能形成未來之「東北亞多邊安全架構」嗎？臺灣會被邊緣化嗎？ |
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第14週 |
5/25 |
台海軍力平衡之改變與台灣安全 |
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第15週 |
6/01 |
臺灣的安全困境：臺灣該如何因應此快速變遷中的亞太安全局勢？
------核子與飛彈時代臺灣安全的兩難：防禦或嚇阻？
------防禦有用嗎？嚇阻有效嗎？美國可以依靠嗎？
------馬政府的「守勢防禦」有用嗎？
------弭兵論、反戰論、中立論與臺灣安全 |
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